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Sunday, December 28, 2008

English Premier League Round 20 (28/12 - 29/12)

EPL quick picks. Due to time constraints, FULL round analysis will not be available.


Sunday, 28 December
Newcastle v Liverpool

Summary: An injury ravaged Newcastle will look to get back on the winning trail against league leaders Liverpool. It will be a herculean task if they did, as the Barcodes are facing somewhat of an injury crisis at the moment. More on that later. On Boxing Day, Liverpool displayed one of their more convincing performances of the season, dispatching a poor Bolton side 3-0 in the easiest of manner. The Merseysiders showed the form of a realistic title winner, with Robbie Keane continuing his recent goal scoring form with two goals. Newcastle on the other hand were poor at Wigan and the narrow 2-1 scoreline flattered them. Centre-half Bassong was sent off midway through the second half to condemn Newcastle's fate as Zaki duly converted the spot kick for the Latics. As a consequence, Bassong will be suspended for this encounter. Joining him on the sidelines will be fellow first choice defenders, Beye and Jose Enrique, both succumbing to injury. As if to add more salt onto Newcastle wounds, Viduka is also out with a groin strain, meaning that Owen is the only first choice striker available for selection, if Martins and Ameobi don't pass late fitness tests. The visitors will remain without the injured Arbeloa and Skrtel but the big news is that Torres may possibly make an appearance after his lengthy injury spell.

Verdict: Newcastle's upturn in form in the last few months can be attributed to the fact that they have defended well. With a record of 4-4-2 in their last 10 encounters, Newcastle have conceded only 6 goals in the eight games where they have earned points. With the backline decimated by injury and suspension, the home side will find it very difficult to nullify Liverpool's attacking weapons. Steven Taylor who has played only 90 minutes of football in Newcastle's last 8 fixtures and one of either Cacapa or Edgar, will be asked to fill the vacancies. Manager, Joe Kinnear, has no choice but to bring in these players who are low in confidence and with minimal football under their belts. After a fine attacking display two days ago, I would be very surprised if Liverpool passed up the opportunity to take all three points here.

Pick: Liverpool Win
Newcastle United 1 - 5 Liverpool

Fulham v Chelsea

Summary: In form London rivals Fulham and Chelsea lock horns in an intriguing contest at Craven Cottage. Fulham are arguably on their best ever run in the Premier League where they have yet to taste defeat in 8 consecutive fixtures. Despite drawing 5 of those games and conceding only 3 goals in the process, Fulham's form can be attributed to their organisation and solid defence. In their last encounter, they were involved in another scoreless stalemate with fellow Londoners, Tottenham Hotspur. Andrew Johnson had a chance to win it at the death but made a meal out of a one on one situation. Up the road at Stamford Bridge and Chelsea put an end to their mini winless streak at home, with a comfortable 2-0 win against West Brom. Drogba made a welcome return for the Pensioners, finding himself on the scoresheet after only 3 minutes. He will be hoping to recover from a kick to the thigh in time for this match. Definitely out for the visitors are Terry, Carvalho and Michael Essien. The home team will be sweating on the fitness of their two most influential players,
Jimmy Bullard and Hangeland.

Verdict: Chelsea'a away record of 8-1-0 is nothing short of incredible and they will hope to improve on that statistic to keep the pressure on league leaders Liverpool. The visitors could not of hoped for any easier game against cellar dwellers West Brom two days ago. Taking into consideration the size and quality of Chelsea's squad, compared to that of Fulham's (and most teams in the world), then it is not difficult to recognise that the visitors have the upperhand in such a congested period of the season. If indeed Fulham's most creative force in Bullard is passed fit, it is questionable as to how effective he will be after suffering a dead leg 48hrs ago. Chelsea have an abundance of fresh midfield players to call on, including Deco and Malouda. With Fulham manager Roy Hodgson not having the luxury to revitalise his team, I expect Chelsea to continue their storming form on their travels.

Pick: Chelsea Win
Fulham 2 - 2 Chelsea

Monday, 29 December
Manchester United v Middlesbrough

Summary: Manchester United entertain a struggling Middlesbrough side who are on a 7 game winless streak. Manchester themselves have been a bit below par in the last month but have still managed 4 wins and 2 draws since their 2-1 loss at Arsenal. On Boxing Day, Manchester United left it till late to breach a stubborn Stoke defence when Tevez converted a Berbatov dink across goal in the 83rd minute, ensuring all 3 points and a 1-0 win. Middlesbrough suffered the exact reverse with a 1-0 loss to Everton in a toothless performance. Middlesbrough's defence was breached time and time again and if it wasn't for Everton's lack of strikers, then the away side may of rung up a cricket score. For this encounter, the reigning champions will continue without the services of Rio Ferdinand, Patrice Evra, and long term absentee Wes Brown. Exciting right-back, Rafael, is likely to replace Neville whereas Evans and O'Shea will join Vidic at the back. Middlesbrough have few injury worries with only Digard absent.

Verdict: Manchester United have faced stubborn opposition in the last month, managing only 3 goals in their last 5 encounters but it must be noted that four of those occasions were away from Old Trafford. Manchester are prolific scorers at home, scoring at a league high 2.7 goals per game. Add to this the fact that Middlesbrough have only kept one clean sheet on their travels and it is likely that goals will be the order of the day. Despite their defensive lapses, Middlesbrough have a dangerous strike force with the likes of Tuncay, Aliadiere, Mido, Downing, and Johnson able to breach the best of defences on their day. Manchester's rearguard has suffered major alterations in the last fortnight so the away team cannot be written off from finding the back of the net here.

Pick: Manchester United -1.5
Manchester United 1 - 0 Middlesbrough

Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Manchester United 1 - 0 Middlesbrough

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