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"FOR THOSE IN THE KNOW, AND THOSE WHO WANT TO KNOW..."

Saturday, November 28, 2009

English Premier League Round 14 (28/11 - 29/11)

Blackburn v Stoke City
Aston Villa v Tottenham
West Ham United v Burnley
Wolverhampton v Birmingham
Fulham v Bolton
Everton v Liverpool
Wigan Athletic v Sunderland
Portsmouth v Manchester United
Arsenal v Chelsea
Manchester City v Hull City


Saturday, November 28

Manchester City v Hull City
Team news: Man City – Robinho (IN), Petrov (OUT) – Hull City – Bullard (IN), Mendy (IN), Olofinjana (OUT)

Verdict: Brave Hull City will look to continue their resurgence up the table when they face a stuttering Manchester City. Just 3 days ago, Hull City defeated Everton 3-2 in a rescheduled fixture, lifting them further away from the dreaded drop zone. Incredibly, Manchester City registered their 6th Premiership draw on the bounce, a 2-2 draw at Liverpool.

Bullard will join forces with Geovanni in midfield for the first time this season, after been rested against Everton. The Sky Blues will retain the much-awaited services of Robinho, likely to appear off the bench, against a Hull City outfit that has earned only 1pt on their travels with a GD of -13. Tigers’ manager, Phil Brown, does not have the luxury of a big squad so changes will be minimal. Following a tough game against Everton, I suspect the visitors will be found wanting on the vast Eastlands pitch against the pace of Wright-Phillips, Bellamy, and Tevez.

Pick: Manchester City -1.5AH @1.97 (sbobet, 7 units)
Manchester City 1 - 1 Hull City

West Ham United v Burnley
Team news: West Ham Utd - Gabbidon (IN), Tomkins (IN), Diamanti (OUT), Upson (OUT), Noble – Burnley – Nil

Verdict: Two of the most generous backlines in the league go head to head in what promises to be an open game with lots of goals – something that has been the norm this season at Upton Park. West Ham has conceded 12 goals (2nd worst defensive home record) in front of their own fans this season whereas Burnley has conceded 20 (2nd worst defensive away record) away from their home comforts. In addition, Burnley seem to have finally taken their shooting boots on their travels after scoring 2 at Blackburn (lost 3-2) and picking up a late 3-3 draw at Manchester City, in their most recent away games. West Ham will push hard for the 3pts knowing that their next home encounters are against Manchester United and Chelsea, leaving their constantly reshuffled backline exposed.

Pick: Over 2.5 goals @1.85 (sbobet, 6 units)
West Ham United 5 - 3 Burnley

Sunday, November 29

Wolverhampton v Birmingham
Team news: Wolves – Ward (doubtful), Zubar (doubtful), Doyle (IN) – Birmingham – Johnson (OUT)

Verdict: 5pts separates these teams with Wolves sitting second from bottom with 10pts. Wolverhampton have found it tough going in the Premier League, especially in the last two weeks following heavy defeats to Arsenal and Chelsea. Birmingham are on a run of 4 games unbeaten, picking up points against the like of Liverpool, Manchester City, and in-form Fulham. Birmingham’s away form does not make for good reading (1w1d4l) but they have had a tough fixture list to contend with. Wolves' home form (1w2d3l) has been rather disappointing and on closer inspection, they have worryingly lost points to teams like Portsmouth, West Ham and Hull City – teams that they need to beat at home to stay in this division. With form and confidence in the visitors’ camp, I will side with Birmingham to get at least a draw here.

Pick: Birmingham +0.5AH @1.71 (sbobet, 6 units)
Wolverhampton 0 - 1 Birmingham

Everton v Liverpool
Team news: Everton – Rodwell (OUT), Fellaini (IN), Bilyaletdinov (IN) – Liverpool – Torres (OUT), Babel (OUT), Riera (OUT)

Verdict: Both Merseyside rivals are in poor form at the moment with only a handful of wins between them in the last 5 rounds or so. Liverpool do not pose the same kind of threat without Torres whereas Everton have struggled to create enough opportunities to win games this season. Good news for Everton in this game is that they do have some creativity within the squad, as Bilyaletdinov and Pienaar are in the squad. With both teams not at their best a close game is highly likely but with the inclusions and the home crowd, I like Everton to get at least a point here.

Pick: Everton +0.5AH @1.85 (sbobet, 6 units)
Everton 0 - 2 Liverpool

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