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Sunday, December 20, 2009

English Premier League Round 18 (19/12 - 21/12)

Portsmouth v Liverpool
Aston Villa v Stoke City
Manchester City v Sunderland
Blackburn v Tottenham
Fulham v Manchester United
Everton v Birmingham City
West Ham United v Chelsea
Wigan Athletic v Bolton


Saturday, December 19

Aston Villa v Stoke City
Team news: Aston Villa - Nil -- Stoke City - Huth (susp.)

Verdict: Aston Villa will try and continue their fine form just 4 days after recording their third consecutive win, a 2-0 result at Sunderland. Stoke City had the luxury of resting sore bodies after their 2-2 draw against Wigan Athletic last weekend. Aston Villa are playing some good football at the moment and the form of Richard Dunne and Carlos Cuellar in defence has been a huge factor in keeping 3 clean sheets on the bounce. Stoke City are in solid if not spectacular form with one defeat in their last 4 appearances.

Aston Villa are one of the form sides of the competition with recent victories at Manchester United and Sunderland confirming that they are the 'real deal' to break into the Top 4. Stoke City though are a tough, physical side who will test the Villa defence with their direct and forceful play. The visitors are also a hard team to break down at the best of times. I feel they can frustrate a Villa side who will be playing their third game in 7 days. In addition, Stoke City have managed to do well against Villa in recent meetings so they can approach this fixture in a positive frame of mind.

Pick: Stoke City +1.25AH @1.88 (betfair, 6 units)
Aston Villa 1 - 0 Stoke City

Blackburn v Tottenham
Team news: Blackburn - Grella (IN), Emerton (OUT), Dunn (doubtful) -- Tottenham - Modric (OUT), King (doubtful)

Verdict: Stuttering Blackburn will look to break their 5 game winless streak when they meet an erratic Tottenham side. Following a 1-0 defeat to Wolverhampton, Tottenham recorded a convincing 3-0 win against Manchester City. Blackburn's struggles continued with a 2-1 loss at Birmingham City. On the bright side, the Rovers atleast recorded a goal which was something they had not achieved in their previous 4 league fixtures.

The Wolverhampton result aside, Tottenham is a team in very good form and were perhaps unfortunate not to be higher than 5th in the table after dominating recent away encounters against Aston Villa and Everton. Blackburn is a team in dissaray but can atleast boast a solid home record which has culminated in only a single defeat. On closer inspection though, Blackburn has had a favourable fixture list at Ewood Park. I expect Tottenham to atlast get their just desserts that their football has deserved on their recent travels.

Pick: Tottenham -0.25AH @1.96 (betfair, 7 units)
Blackburn 0 - 2 Tottenham

Manchester City v Sunderland
Team news: Manchester City - Shaun Wright-Phillips (doubtful), De Jong (susp.), Lescott (OUT) -- Sunderland - Cana (susp.), Ferdinand (OUT), Turner (doubtful)

Verdict: Manchester City will look to rebound following their second loss for the season, a 3-0 defeat at the hands of Tottenham, while Sunderland will look to put a stop to a 4 game winless streak. The pressure is well and truly on Manchester City boss, Mark Hughes, as his expensively assembled squad has only won once in their last 10 Premier League outings. Sunderland boss, Steve Bruce, is no where near under the same pressure eventhough his team have fallen away some what in recent weeks.

Sunderland have proven to be a big match team this season, taking points away to Manchester United (2-2), Liverpool (1-0), and most recently Arsenal (1-0) but there single win away from home does not make for good reading. Manchester City desperately need a win here and possibly a good showing to boot after their lacklustre showing at White Hart Lane midweek. With so many defensive guns absent (from both sides) and so many lethal attacking weapons on show, I expect goals here as both teams desperately seek the 3pts.

Pick: Over 2.5 goals @1.78 (betfair, 6 units)
Manchester City 4 - 3 Sunderland

Sunday, December 20

Everton v Birmingham City
Team news: Everton - Rodwell (OUT), Osman (IN), Cahill (IN), Jo (doubtful) -- Birmingham City - Nil

Verdict: The form side of the Premier League, Birmingham City, will aim to make it 6 wins on the bounce when they face a resurgent Everton. Birmingham City have perhaps had a favourable fixture list to achieve this sort of feat but you can be sure that they will be confident of taking 3pts at Goodison Park. Everton seem to be slowly turning the corner if recent results are anything to go by. Amazing, come from behind heroics against Tottenham (2-2) followed by an equally battling display at Chelsea (3-3) suggests that the 'old' Everton has returned. This can be attributed to the fact that some of Everton's more influential players are beginning to return from injury, plus players like Fellaini and Cahill are beginning to carry their weight.

Everton have suffered an amazing dry spell at Goodison Park, going 7 matches (in all competitions) without a win or a clean sheet whereas Birmingham City are undefeated in their last 3 visits. It is also worth noting that Birmingham City will be playing their 3rd game in 8 days compared to Everton's two. Moyes fielded the second string in a meaningless, midweek Europa fixture so the home team should finish the stronger. In what is likely to be a high tempo affair, I expect Everton to eventually over run their visitors in a game that promises to be a good advertisment of the EPL.

Pick: Everton -0.5 @1.97 (sbobet, 6 units)
Everton 1 - 1 Birmingham City

West Ham United v Chelsea
Team news: West Ham United - Upson (IN), Dyer (OUT), Jimenez (IN) -- Chelsea - Drogba (IN)

Verdict: Chelsea will look to take full advantage of Manchester United's slip up at Fulham and go 6pts clear at the top of the table. Perhaps they could not have chosen a better opponent in West Ham United, a team bereft of confidence and key personnel. In good news for the home team, captain Matthew Upson returns after a 3 week lay off but the Hammers miss Cartlon Cole's presence the most. Since the striker's absence, West Ham have found the net only once in three games, conceding 8 in the process. It will be interesting to see how 33yr old Franco copes with three games in 8 days of Premiership football.
Chelsea got back to winning ways midweek in a solid if not spectacular 2-1 home win against Portsmouth. Drogba missed that game because of a back complaint but is likely to slot back into the team for this fixture. In such a busy schedule, big squads are king and Chelsea manager, Carlo Ancelloti, will have the luxury of reshuffling his pack without losing in quality. Zola does not have that at his disposal.

West Ham United has been a welcoming fixture for Chelsea in the last 5 years, and I expect this to continue here as the Hammers don't have the form and squad numbers to trouble their London rivals.

Pick: Chelsea -1.25 @2.02 (sbobet, 6 units)
West Ham United 1 - 1 Chelsea

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