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"FOR THOSE IN THE KNOW, AND THOSE WHO WANT TO KNOW..."

Saturday, March 20, 2010

English Premier League Round 30 (20/03 - 24/03)

Aston Villa v Wolverhampton
Everton v Bolton
Portsmouth v Hull City
Stoke City v Tottenham
Sunderland v Birmingham City
Wigan Athletic v Burnley
Arsenal v West Ham United
Manchester United v Liverpool
Fulham v Manchester City
Blackburn v Chelsea
Manchester City v Everton
Aston Villa v Sunderland
Blackburn v Birmingham City
Portsmouth v Chelsea


Saturday, March 20

Everton v Bolton

Verdict: Everton are gunning for their 7th straight win at Goodison Park when they host Bolton. The visitors have been dismal on the road this season. Since the turn of the year, the Wanderers have only scored 4 goals and conceded a hefty 20 goals in their 8 away games.

Everton let a 2 goal lead slip at Birmingham City last weekend. The Toffees will definitely see this as a missed opportunity to gain ground on those vying for Europa League next season. Bolton returned to winning ways at The Reebok with a 4-0 win over erratic Wigan Athletic. The home side are strengthened today by the return of Saha and Leon Osman who both trained this week. Bolton have won only once on their travels since last October. With Everton still pushing for Europe and playing good football (especially at home), I can only see a comfortable win for the home side.

Pick: Everton -1.25 @2.18 (188bet, 10 units)
Everton 2 - 0 Bolton

Everton v Bolton (Over 2.5 goals)

Verdict: Everton seem to have found their scoring mojo with 13 goals scored in their last 5 Premiership outings. What makes this statistic even more impressive is that they have scored goals against the league's premier back lines -i.e. Chelsea (2 goals), Manchester United (3 goals), and 2 goals away at Birmingham City last week. Bolton concede at an average of just over 2 goals a game (31 in 15 games) so Everton do have an opportunity to get some goals.
Despite their scoring power, Everton have failed to keep a clean sheet since early February. An up beat Bolton side (following their 4-0 win over Wigan Athletic)
will fancy getting on the score sheet, especially as Sylvain Distin has been a liability for the Toffees of late. Both sides had a full week's rest for this game so we can expect a lot of energy and goals to boot!

Pick: Over 2.5 goals @1.83 (totesport, 10 units)
Everton 2 - 0 Bolton

Stoke City v Tottenham

Verdict: Stoke City will look to play the role of spoiler as Tottenham aim to keep their 3 game winning streak going. Spurs currently occupy the much coveted 4th position at the moment, all be it under enormous pressure from three other sides. Their 3-1 home win over Blackburn, last week, did at least keep them ahead of the chasing pack. Stoke City have only lost once since early January and they showed their stubborness in the scoreless draw against Aston Villa.

Tottenham's already lengthy injury list got even bigger this week with the addition of top marksman, Jermaine Defoe. He will be a big loss in a squad that has only scored 4 goals in their last 5 games on their travels. With the absence of Bentley and Lennon, Tottenham do lack natural width so I believe that they will have a hard time breaking down The Potters. Stoke City are playing with out pressure and are almost at full-strength, with Shawcross eligible after suspension (faces fitness test).

Stoke City +0.25AH @1.95 (sbobet, 10 units)
Stoke City 1 - 2 Tottenham

Wigan Athletic v Burnley

Verdict: With only 4pts seperating these sides, there's no denying that this is a big game. Wigan Athletic have been the enigma of the season as they do have the quality of player to be further up the table. In midweek, they more than matched Aston Villa but an unfortunate own goal by James McCarthy set them back on their heels, eventually losing 1-2. Burnley are still looking for their first away win of the season. The Clarets are currently in free fall, especially after having lost their early season home form. A 1-2 loss at Turf Moor to fellow strugglers Wolverhampton was probably the lowest of lows for Burnley this season.

Since the DW stadium had its surface relayed a fortnight ago, Wigan Athletic's performances have improved - highlighted by the 1-0 win over Liverpool. With two away fixtures against Fulham and Manchester City on the horizon, Wigan Athletic will be highly motivated to ease the pressure on themselves as the season draws to a close. Burnley's new manager, Brian Laws, has not had the desired effect and it looks like the Clarets are destined for relegation.

Pick: Wigan Athletic -0.5AH @1.88 (pinnacle, 10 units)
Wigan Athletic 1 - 0 Burnley

Sunday, March 21

Blackburn v Chelsea

Verdict: With West Ham United, Burnley, and Hull City all losing yesterday, Blackburn can now breath a slight sigh of relief as they lie 10pts above the relegation zone. Their form at Ewood Park has been impeccable this season (8-4-2) but they can expect a backlash from a wounded Chelsea side. The Pensioners were knocked out of the Champions League by Inter Milan midweek. In addition, they have now slipped to 3rd position after Arsenal managed a hard fought 2-0 win over West Ham United yesterday.

Blackburn are missing a host of key players for this game especially in defence with Givet, Nelsen and keeper Robinson all out through injury. This is problematic for the home side as their defensive organization has been the main reason for their solid home record. Chelsea regain the services of first keeper Cech while there are no new injury worries. Chelsea have been below par this month but if we turn the clock back to May of last year when they bowed out to Barcelona in the Champions League, they rebounded days later to win 4-1 at Arsenal in emphatic style. I expect a similar reaction here against a side missing a string of players and perhaps thinking about the more winnable games ahead.

Pick: Chelsea -1.25AH @2.02 (sbobet, 10 units)
Blackburn 1 - 1 Chelsea

Wednesday, March 24

Manchester City v Everton

Verdict: With 8 games remaining the chase for Europe is hotting up and with only 3 positions seperating these two sides on the table, it is sure to be a fiesty encounter. Manchester City currently sit in 5th position, two points away from Tottenham with a game in hand. Everton sit in 8th position respectively, five points away from Aston Villa and a Europa Cup place. In my opinion, I believe Manchester City are in a false position just this moment (should be lower), as are Everton who should be higher placed. This was evident in the game at Goodison Park, in January. Everton completely played Manchester City off the park and in reality, the quality and the unity between the two teams was more evident than the 2-0 full time score suggests.

Yes, Everton have only 3 away wins all season and yes, Manchester City are undefeated at the City of Manchester Stadium which explains the inflated price on the visitors. But, the visitors have been playing the better football for a few months now with their only defeats coming in the Merseyside derby (slogfest) and at Tottenham, the latter coming 3 days after Everton bowed out of the Europa Cup in Lisbon.
Manchester City are missing key defenders Bridge and Lescott while Adebayor serves the final game of his suspension. With Saha and Osman returning to squad in the 2-0 weekend win over Bolton, Everton only have concerns over Anichebe (doubtful).

Everton have won their last two encounters at Manchester City so the trip will definitely not haunt the visitors. I see great value on the away win here.

Picks:
Everton 0.5AH @1.95 (sbobet, 10 units)
Manchester City 0 - 2 Everton
Everton 1X2 @4.33 (Stan James, 4 units)
Manchester City 0 - 2 Everton

Aston Villa v Sunderland

Verdict: Both sides go into this encounter with some confidence after their respective undefeated runs in the league. Aston Villa have managed 8 games with out defeat and Sunderland 4 respectively. Sunderland could not have realistically hoped for a better string of results in the past month, managing big wins over Bolton and Birmingham City to ease their relegation fears. Despite their undeated run, Aston Villa have managed only a single victory at Villa Park in their last 6 encounters.

From having one of the strongest home records in the division before the turn of the year, Aston Villa have slipped up in 2010. They now face a confident visiting side who has under achieved for most of the year. Due to their recent form and Darren Bent's glut of goals (5 in last 3 games), Sunderland are 10pts above the relegation zone and can now perhaps express themselves more as we approach the end of the season. Aston Villa have had a long season with their good performances in the domestic cups and I believe tiredness has taken an edge off their game. In addition, key marksman Gabby Agbonlahor misses out through injury while dependable centre-back, Richard Dunne, is under a major injury cloud.

Pick: Sunderland +1AH @1.80 (10 units, fonbet)
Aston Villa 1 - 1 Sunderland

Blackburn v Birmingham City

Verdict: 12th meets 9th in a game which means much more to the former, that being Blackburn. At first glance, Blackburn may seem safe at 11pts above relegation but they do have a tough run in. The Rovers have a fixture list which includes three games at relegation threatened sides in addition to home fixtures against Manchester United, Everton and Arsenal.

Blackburn's impressive season home form of 8-5-2 continued on the weekend as they pegged back title challengers Chelsea to draw 1-1. This result meant that Blackburn have now taken 13pts out of a possible 15 in their last five games at Ewood Park. In contrast, Birmingham City's dismal away form continued with their 3-1 defeat at Sunderland. Birmingham City have now suffered defeats at Sunderland, Portsmouth, Fulham, Chelsea and West Ham United - all in the space of just under 2 months. McLeish has a difficult job on his hands to motivate his players as their current performances do suggest that Europe is a foregone conclusion. Form and motivation is with the home side and they can go a long way in assuring their Premier League status for next season with a win here.

Pick: Blackburn -0.5AH @2.10 (pinnacle, 10 units)
Blackburn 2 - 1 Birmingham City

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