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Saturday, May 1, 2010

English Premier League Round 36 (1/05 - 3/05)

Birmingham City v Burnley
Manchester City v Aston Villa
Portsmouth v Wolverhampton
Stoke City v Everton
Tottenham v Bolton
Liverpool v Chelsea
Fulham v West Ham United
Sunderland v Manchester United
Wigan Athletic v Hull City
Blackburn v Arsenal


Saturday, May 1

Birmingham City v Burnley

Verdict: Currently sitting in 9th position, Birmingham City will be looking to secure a top 10 finish this season. This will be a great achievement for a club that gained promotion from The Championship last season. Burnley's fate was sealed last weekend after their 4-0 home defeat to Liverpool. The Clarets have won only once on their travels for the entire season so a win at St Andrew's is highly improbable

The Brummies are winless in their last 8 outings but have the perfect chance to thank their fans against an already relegated Burnley. They were in great form last weekend in the 1-0 loss at Aston Villa, and can consider themselves rather unfortunate not to take at least a point from that game. There are some absentees in defence for the home team with Carr and Dann unavaible but Parnaby and Vignal are capable replacements. Amazingly, with Fulham's progression to the Europa League Final, Burnley are a chance at playing European football next season via the Fair Play Table. We can be sure that the visitors will be shying away from tackles in this game, even more reason to think that this should be a comfortable win for the hosts.

Pick: Birmingham City -1AH @ 1.94 (188bet, 10 units)
Birmingham City 2 - 1 Burnley

Stoke City v Everton

Verdict: Stoke City will look to rebound from their 7-0 drubbing at Chelsea last weekend, against an Everton side still harbouring slim hopes of European football next season. Everton trail their Merseyside neighbours, Liverpool, by 5pts so the Blues can mathematically still oust their biggest rivals from Europe all together. The visitors recorded a 2-1, last minute win over a depleted Fulham side to stretch their unbeaten run to 9 games.

In addition to the demoralizing result at Stamford Bridge, Stoke City keeper, Thomas Sorensen, dislocated his elbow while several other players were involved in heated exchanges. Both Tuncay and Kitson reacted badly at been substituted last week while it is reported that Whelan and Faye had a dressing room altercation. The Potters have won only once at The Brittania Stadium in their last 6 encounters so it is safe to say that the home team's season is petering out somewhat. Everton are in a great run of form at the moment and I expect them to play well again today. Apart from keeping the European dream alive (as mentioned above), the visitors have players such as Saha, Jagielka, Baines, Anichebe and Arteta who are still looking to impress their respective World Cup managers.

Pick: Everton -0.25AH @1.84 (188bet, 10 units)
Stoke City 0 - 0 Everton

Tottenham v Bolton

Verdict: 4th placed Tottenham will look to consolidate their position with a win against 14th placed Bolton. Tottenham were given a reality check last weekend in their 3-1 defeat to Manchester United. Late goals by Nani and Giggs condemned Spurs to their 9th defeat of the season but they return to home comforts today, where they are so strong. Bolton let a 2 goal lead slip against Portsmouth to eventually draw 2-2. After having drawn with Tottenham twice this season, Bolton will be looking to play the role of gatecrasher today.

Today, Tottenham play their first of 3 games within a week with a midweek fixture at Manchester City, followed by a trip to relegated Burnley. The midweek fixture at Eastlands is huge for Spurs as Manchester City are their most dangerous rivals for that much coveted 4th spot. With the same number of games played, 1pt (in Spurs' advantage) and a goal difference of -1 (favouring Man City) seperating the sides, it could very well come down to the finest of margins. This is Tottenham's final home game for the season so they will be looking to scores lots of goals if possible. Bolton are now safe for another season so I expect the visitors to play an expansive brand of football. I expect an open game here with a number of goals.

Pick: Over 2.75 goals @1.74 (5dimes, 10 units)
Tottenham 1 - 0 Bolton

Sunday, May 2

Liverpool v Chelsea

Verdict: Just 3 days after their semi-final defeat at the hands of Atletico Madrid, Liverpool have the chance to do their biggest rivals an enormous favour by beating Chelsea. Manchester United trail Chelsea by a single point going into the final two games of the season. Liverpool still have an outside chance of claiming fourth spot but it will take an amazing set of circumstances for that to happen. The Reds though are assured of European football next season following Everton's draw yesterday. Chelsea demolished Stoke City 7-0 last weekend to increase their GD on Manchester United to a healthy +8 goals.

Liverpool has struggled in recent months in matches directly following a midweek European fixture, with the scoreless home draw against Fulham a prime example. The Merseyside club also looked very lethargic in the first half of last week's 4-0 win at Burnley. Chelsea will not be so forgiving if there is an inkling of lethargy from the home side. All is not well with Liverpool at the moment with Benitez likely to leave the club at the end of the season which will only add to the uncertainty within the camp.
Carlo Ancelloti has no such issues with his team in prime position to win the title and in the final of the FA Cup. The Italian also has a relatively full squad to choose from with the return of captain, John Terry, from suspension and Ashley Cole from injury. Liverpool are ofcourse minus Torres and possibly fellow striker N'Gog too.
Keeping in mind Liverpool's 120min marathon effort three days ago, the absence of Torres, the politics, and possibly a lack of motivation, I expect only one result here.

Pick: Chelsea 1x2 @1.89 (betcruise, 10 units)
Liverpool 0 - 2 Chelsea

Sunderland v Manchester United

Verdict: Sunderland boss and Manchester United at heart, Steve Bruce, will look to gatecrash his former club's title challenge at The Stadium of Light today. Sunderland have only suffered two defeats at home all season, to Chelsea and Aston Villa respectively. With Sunderland currently sitting in 10th position, the Black Cats' season is all but over, but pride will be at stake for the Wearsiders.

Manchester United defeated in form Tottenham 3-1 last weekend to stay on the coat tails of Chelsea, trailing the London side by a single point. The big news for the visitors is the return of Rio Ferdinand, and the likely return of Wayne Rooney. Sunderland have issues in defence with Hutton suspended, Mensah doubtful, and McCartney a long term absentee. In midfield, Cattermole is a doubt while captain Lorik Cana has only recently returned from injury so his involvement may be minimal. Sunderland have conceded at an average of a goal a game at home. With Manchester United keeping four away clean sheets on the trot and boast the best away record in the division (10w3d5l). There is no bigger motivation than challenging for the title so I expect the result to go by the formbook.

Pick: Manchester United -1.25AH @ 1.94 (pinnacle, 10 units)
Sunderland 0 - 1 Manchester United

Monday, May 3

Blackburn v Arsenal

Verdict: With the season drawing to a close, Arsenal still need at least a point to assure themselves of third position. Blackburn sit comfortably in 13th position but have an opportunity to jump to 10th with a win here.
Following their run of 6 league wins in a row, Arsenal's form has dipped to see them slip behind Manchester United and Chelsea for the title. Injuries have not helped with no less than 9 players on the treatment table. In total contrast, Blackburn has a full compliment of players available as big man Samba, and Emerton, are likely to return from their respective ailments.

Blackburn have won half their games at Ewood Park this season which is impressive for a team in the bottom half of the table. Arsenal's scoreless draw at Manchester City means that the visitors are winless in their last 3 and have won only one of their last 5. Sam Allardyce has a good a record against Arsene Wenger from his time at Bolton. Despite Big Sam leading a different club, the physical and direct approach he preaches to his players is still the same. The inclusion of Samba is a big plus for the home side as his size will cause the visitors endless headaches, especially for the nervous Lukasz Fabianski. Blackburn also has other players that are in good form, including Olsson, Nzonzi, and Dunn so I expect Arsenal to come under alot of pressure. With Tottenham needing a minor miracle to displace Arsenal from third position, perhaps the visitors will not show as much fight as the home side. This is Blackburn's final home game and with them looking to crack into the top 10 and a raucous crowd behind them, I give them a chance of an upset here.

Picks:
Blackburn 1x2 @3.95 (canbet, 4 units)
Blackburn 2 - 1 Arsenal
Blackburn +0.5AH @1.89 (betinternet, 10 units)
Blackburn 2 - 1 Arsenal

Wigan Athletic v Hull City

Verdict: Wigan Athletic have the perfect opportunity to celebrate their survival in the Premier League with a big win over relegated Hull City. The sorry Tigers are the only team in the league with out an away win all season so the Latics will fancy themselves to continue their good recent home form. In their last home fixture, Wigan achieved an incredible (come from behind) 3-2 win against Arsenal in the dying embers of the game. This would of given the players great confidence and I expect them to take some of that into this game, despite losing 3-2 at West Ham United last weekend. Hull City's 1-0 home defeat to Sunderland condemned them to the Championship league. Hull City have simply been outclassed this season and the club's performances have seemed to go from bad to worse since the appointment of Ian Dowie.

These teams last met in the FA Cup, exactly 4 months to the day. The result on that occasion was an overwhelming 4-1 in favour of Wigan Athletic. I expect another comfortable outing for the Latics here.

Pick: Wigan Athletic 1x2 @1.83 (bodog, 10 units)
Wigan Athletic 2 - 2 Hull City

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