FOR THOSE IN THE KNOW AND THOSE WHO WANT TO KNOW

"FOR THOSE IN THE KNOW, AND THOSE WHO WANT TO KNOW..."

Sunday, April 17, 2011

English Premier League Round 32 (16-20/04)

West Ham United v Aston Villa
Everton v Blackburn
WBA v Chelsea
Birmingham City v Sunderland
Blackpool v Wigan Athletic
Arsenal v Liverpool
Newcastle United v Manchester United
Chelsea v Birmingham City
Tottenham v Arsenal


Saturday, April 16

Birmingham City v Sunderland

Verdict: On the weekend, Birmingham City gained in what could be a vital point in the fight to avoid relegation with a 1-1 draw at Blackburn. The Brummies moved 3pts clear above the relegation zone with a game in hand on all their direct rivals. Sunderland's dreadful form since February continued with the 2-3 home loss against West Brom. The Black Cats are clearly the league's worst performing team in recent months with just one point gained from the last possible 24.

In recent weeks, Birmingham City has shown signs of recovering from their League Cup Final hangover with battling performances last weekend and in the 2-1 win over Bolton the week prior. The threat of relegation is very real for Birmingham City so their home fixtures take on an added importance considering their poor away form. Sunderland look a tired outfit. The return of Cattermole and Welbeck, in recent weeks, has not had the desired effect on Steve Bruce's team while recent injuries to Mensah, Richardson, and Ferdinand (with Bramble a long term absentee) leaves the visitors stretched at the back. Birmingham City has selection worries of their own but Alex McLeish's side are well organized and look well up for the fight, unlike Sunderland.

Pick: Birmingham City -0.25ah @1.87 (VCBet, 10 units)
Birmingham City 2 - 0 Sunderland

Blackpool v Wigan Athletic

Verdict: This is a six-pointer in every sense of the word as only two points separates bottom sides, Wigan Athletic and Blackpool. It is almost a certain that the destiny of both these clubs will be decided on the last day of the season as they fight to reverse their respective wretched runs of form. Blackpool's demise since the turn of the year continued as they went down valiantly in a 1-3 result against title challenging Arsenal. Wigan Athletic had an equally tough game at Chelsea, losing 1-0 in controversial circumstances to a Florent Malouda strike.

One thing that we can guarantee with Blackpool this season is goals. In fact, their games so far this season have averaged 3.5 goals which is by far the most in the league. Wigan are the lowest scorers in the top flight, scoring less than a goal a game but they do have some favorable fixtures ahead of them. The Latics' recent dry spell of 5 games (out of the last six) with out scoring can deter people from taking this bet but we should take into account the quality of the opposition. It is high time for both teams and a draw will not do any good for either side so I expect both teams to get on the score sheet.

Pick: Over 3 goals @1.98 (ibcbet, 10 units)
Blackpool 1 - 3 Wigan Athletic

West Ham United v Aston Villa

Verdict: Aston Villa eased their relegation fears on the weekend with a deserved 1-0 win over an injury-stricken Newcastle United. James Collins' first half header was enough to claim the points and move the Villains 5pts ahead of the relegation zone, and opponents West Ham United. The Hammers put in an abject first half performance at Bolton which ultimately sealed the win for the hosts, eventually running out 3-0 victors. It was a performance that can be considered as out of character for the Hammers in recent months, and they will be looking to get back to winning ways at Upton Park.

West Ham United will attempt to put an end to a run of 3 games without a win as they meet a travel sick Aston Villa side. The Villains have only won 2 games away from home, and not kept a clean sheet (on their travels) all season. I expect West Ham to dominate in the centre of midfield with the trio of Parker, Hitzlsperger, and Parker in superior form to that of Villa's Reo-Coker, Petrov, and/or Makoun. With this in mind, I give the home side a strong chance at creating the greater scoring opportunities and consequently a priceless 3 points.

Pick: West Ham United dnb @1.70 (ibcbet, 10 units)
West Ham United 1 - 2 Aston Villa


Tuesday, April 19

Newcastle United v Manchester United

Verdict: League leaders, Manchester United, will aim to bounce back from their 1-0 FA Cup defeat to Manchester City when they face mid-table Newcastle United. For the weekend's encounter, Sir Alex Ferguson was without the services of the suspended Wayne Rooney while Hernandez was left on the bench, and Ryan Giggs was left out of the squad all together. Berbatov missed two golden opportunities in a bright start but it wasn't to be for the red half of Manchester. Newcastle has not played since Sunday week's 1-0 defeat at Aston Villa.

The Barcodes look set to be absent of some key figures for this encounter with Nolan suspended and Ameobi unlikely to be risked. This means that Pardew will have no choice but to line up with a limp strike force of Lovenkrands and Ranger/Kuqi. Joey Barton is one caution away from receiving his 9th yellow card of the season and consequently a suspension. Manchester United welcome back Wayne Rooney from suspension while fellow in-form team mates, Giggs and Hernandez, are expected to go straight back into the starting line-up. Sir Alex has said all along that the league is his number one priority. With Arsenal's bitterly dissapointing 1-1 draw against Liverpool, I expect Manchester United to push hard for the win and extend their buffer at the top to an almost unassailable 9pts.

Pick: Manchester United -0.75ah @2.09 (ibcbet, 10 units)
Newcastle United 0 - 0 Manchester United


Wednesday, April 20

Tottenham v Arsenal

Verdict: In what is always a special occassion for both sets of supporters, this recent edition of the North London derby takes on added importance. Tottenham are looking to stay in the race to qualify for another Champions League campaign, trailing fourth-placed Manchester City by 3pts. Arsenal has ofcourse bigger fish to fry, vying to stay in touch with Manchester United for the title. Following Manchester United's scoreless draw in Newcastle yesterday, Arsenal trail the leaders by 7pts with a game in hand.

Both teams are similarly going through indifferent spells of form at the moment, Tottenham winning one of their last eight competitive fixtures while Arsenal, one in their last seven outings respectively. It must be noted though that Tottenham did play most of those fixtures on the road - Spurs are a different proposition at White Hart Lane. In fact, Tottenham has only lost once in the league all season (a 0-1 loss to Wigan Athletic in August). In the last few months, Arsenal's demons have returned to haunt them at the most critical stage of the season (just as in recent seasons gone by). Their home form has deserted them (three consecutive draws against Sunderland, Blackburn and Liverpool) and they seem to lack the belief that they can win the title. I believe that Sunday's heart breaking 1-1 draw against Liverpool has left Arsenal deflated. Tottenham go into this game with added rest and in my opinion, a better state of mind to claim an all important 3pts.

Pick: Tottenham dnb @2.12 (ibcbet, 10 units)
Tottenham 3 - 3 Arsenal

No comments: